Will Apple sour?

[Tyll Hertsens]

My new Droid rocks the boat.

My iTouch feels a bit dated now.

Will my iPad, yet to arrive on this New Year's eve day, feel just ordinary as the New Year's dawns tomorrow?

Five years hence, will Apple feel like Microsoft, and Microsoft like National Cash Register?

Has Apple just introduced us to the new millennium, only to find themselves running to catch up after showing everyone else how to do it?

Edited December 31, 2010 by Tyll Hertsens

[aardvark baguette]

Apple has so much cash on hand, they are always working on future stuff.

The general historical pattern is each release is mega popular, though not without quirks. I dont see this changing anytime soon. IMHO

[Tyll Hertsens]

no.

Why not?

Apple has so much cash on hand

Okay, you win.

[grawk]

Apple is pretty good about staying ahead of the curve. I really don't expect that to change in the next 5 years...

[Dusty Chalk]

I doubt they will keep their borderline monopoly, but no, iPads are still cool, and still will be. But yeah, you should sell your iTouch now, while the going's good.

[Cankin]

Apple does not have to invent by themselves, they can just buy smaller firms who are actually inventing.

[grawk]

it's way more efficient to innovate by buying successful innovators than to perform all the core research yourself. Rewarding success and then being creative on how you combine things is the way to win.

[Tyll Hertsens]

So, I buy the standard responses, but try this on for size:

Apple's big win was converging a lot of shit and making it simple to do everything from one (or a couple) of devices. Convergence is bitchen on Apples.

But, with Google as a backdrop, and various folks streaming various shit, and everyone playing catch-up with the Apple media experience, I think we might find better, deeper, more varietous, open, and controllable brands of convergence. In essence, the Apple "lock down" on 3rd party stuff will end up limiting them when convergence is better broadly.

In future, it may feel like you've sold out into the Apple world and hobbled by it. iTunes relentless desire to control my music pisses me off; I don't want a bigger version of that. It's not so much the hardware or OS, but the convergence upstream of your device that will count. The smarter the web gets, the more you'll only need a browser in your pocket --- and that's not very tough.

A open market of converged technologies may be better than the converged but closed world of Apple.

[Grahame]

Apple will always be cool. We've always been at war with Eastasia.

[morphsci]

The droid interface has caught up to iPhone IMO. Each still it's strengths but the pace of innovation is increasing on the android platform. It should be a nice race to watch and we all win from the competition. On the computing side Apple still wins, and that is coming from a lifelong Windows fanboy. Win7 runs at least as good in Parallels as stand alone, and sometimes I think it runs better.

Edited December 31, 2010 by morphsci

[Cankin]

No no, I said "does not have to" not "does not". I believe with those cash they have, Apple will just buy even more smaller companies.

[Salt Peanuts]

The smarter the web gets, the more you'll only need a browser in your pocket --- and that's not very tough.

Two words why it's more difficult than it appears - Internet Explorer.

As for the "closedness" of Apple products, I much prefer the polished, stable, and less frustrating user experience that it offers than other "open" products that tend to offer more tweakability & user control in exchange for instability and more frustrating user experience.

In regards to the whole invention issues, inventing is important, but application of said inventions and putting it out in market in usable form is more important, IMO.

Edited December 31, 2010 by Salt Peanuts

[Tyll Hertsens]

i imagine that it will happen at the same time as the Year of Linux on the Desktop.

I kinda buy your points. It's going to be an interesting struggle.

I got a MacBook, iTouch, and iPad (it arrived! letting it warm up a bit before it goes into the otterbox), and despite my qvetching above, I'm going to try to do as much of my work as I can in Appleland because it's so much more enjoyable than in Windows.

Win7 runs at least as good in Parallels as stand alone

I agree, I think my preference beyond the fact that their close is the refreshing feel of a beautifully designed product. Intangibles can be sweet.

Edited December 31, 2010 by Tyll Hertsens

[morphsci]

maybe, but only until you have to open a settings menu.

Never had any problem. Maybe I just feel comfortable with chaotic systems. Feels kind of natural.

[Cankin]

I also hope that Apple will reduce the price of their computers. Just look at iPhone or iPod, people tend to buy Apple's product if they are priced similarly to others. Here in Canada, from my observation, out of 10 smartphones, 7 are iPhones and 2 Blackberry and 1 Samsung/HTC/Nokia.

[n_maher]

As for the "closedness" of Apple products, I much prefer the polished, stable, and less frustrating user experience that it offers than other "open" products that tend to offer more tweakability & user control in exchange for instability and more frustrating user experience.

Then Apple had better get off their ass and fix iTunes. As more and more of their product base becomes 100% tethered to this piece of software it becomes a crucial thing to get right. The current version is a piece of shit.

The fact that the iPad cannot load much of anything without being tied to a computer is short-sighted and IMO provides a big impediment to purchase. There's an opportunity there for Apple in Rev2 of the iPad, but I don't think they'll be taking it.

There computers are great, provided that you don't want to do much with them. Some allow better processing power and graphics, but they are still ignoring a (not-insignificant?) population by not having a more powerful option. They also seem to have a huge hard-on for battery life, when I just don't see that it matters once you get beyond a few hours with most laptops.

I think Steve does a great job running the company and steers it better than any other tech product firm that I can think of, I guess I'm just still amazed at the apparent ball-drops that still occur.

[Tyll Hertsens]

Google doesn't seem to understand that Apple doesn't care if everybody on the planet has one of their products.

I guess I think the "coolness" gap may be closing, and Apple may have a harder and harder time demanding the prices with other products close enough at 2/3 the price. Then it'll be harder to be on the money making curve.

[Cankin]

why would they? have you seen the stock prices and the amount of money they are making?

Stock price isn't anything. Imaging if one can save $1,000 by getting a Windows laptop over MacBook, and use that $1,000 to sponsor a child with Worldvision, well, not everyone or every company feel the need of being responsible socially.

do you have market data to back that up?

Look below, "from my observation"

[Salt Peanuts]

I agree about iTunes being a pile of poo. I do avoid using it unless I need to transfer something onto my iPod.

[grawk]

I'm the exception I guess, but I like itunes.

[Cankin]

buy from companies that do that then. good luck.

Or setting a real foundation like Bill Gates did, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. I hope Jobs will do the same thing one day.

so in other words, "no."

No, most post on forum doesn't have any data to back up, it is cooler without data

[grawk]

I don't know how long it takes to launch, it launches only on my server computer at boot time.

[Salt Peanuts]

Or setting a real foundation like Bill Gates did, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

I think that was done so people will forget Melinda Gates was partly responsible for Microsoft Bob.

Edited December 31, 2010 by Salt Peanuts

[Cankin]

They started the foundation before Microsoft Bob was out, wasn't it?

[Salt Peanuts]

The original foundation was started before Microsoft Bob came out, but they didn't rename it Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation until 1999, at least according to ever-so-reliable Wiipedia.