n_maher Posted June 30, 2008 Report Posted June 30, 2008 We're going to run out eventually, anyways -- we might as well start looking for alternatives now. Prices are only going to go up.Yes, but if there are productive steps that can be taken in addition to finding ways to reduce consumption it'll help ease transition.
aardvark baguette Posted June 30, 2008 Report Posted June 30, 2008 The US uses 7.5 billion barrels of oil every single year, while there's an estimated 18 billion barrels & change in the areas currently closed to drilling. That's only around 2.5 years worth of oil at current consumption rates. The long-term solution to running out of oil isn't to drill more, what needs to be done is developing and building a new infrastructure and transportation system. In short, lots of electrified rail transport, electric cars where needed and nuke plants with full fuel reprocessing and breeder reactors. Bakken could be huge. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that the Bakken might hold 413 billion barrels. If so, it would dwarf Saudi Arabia's Ghawar, the world's biggest field, which has produced about 55 billion barrels. link Not offshore, but hey; oil is oil.
aerius Posted June 30, 2008 Report Posted June 30, 2008 Official USGS study of Bakken. 3 to 4.3 billion barrels, mean estimate of 3.65 billion. Or around half a year's worth of oil for the US.
aardvark baguette Posted June 30, 2008 Report Posted June 30, 2008 But as demand goes up, oil previously considered un-drillable becomes worth drilling.
aerius Posted June 30, 2008 Report Posted June 30, 2008 But as demand goes up, oil previously considered un-drillable becomes worth drilling. No, it doesn't. The term the USGS study uses is "technically recoverable", as in have the technology to recover the oil, regardless of cost. Unless new drilling technologies are developed the oil will remain unrecoverable no matter how high the demand goes. I have friends working in the industry, there's nothing in the R&D pipeline which will allow us pull more oil from Bakken, the technology does not exist and will not exist for the foreseeable future.
JBLoudG20 Posted June 30, 2008 Report Posted June 30, 2008 No, it doesn't. The term the USGS study uses is "technically recoverable", as in have the technology to recover the oil, regardless of cost. Unless new drilling technologies are developed the oil will remain unrecoverable no matter how high the demand goes. I have friends working in the industry, there's nothing in the R&D pipeline which will allow us pull more oil from Bakken, the technology does not exist and will not exist for the foreseeable future. So what you are saying is you have insider tips on your financial investments?
aardvark baguette Posted June 30, 2008 Report Posted June 30, 2008 Oil in the ground = money. People like money. People will figure out a way. They always do.
aerius Posted June 30, 2008 Report Posted June 30, 2008 People have been trying to get oil from oil shale since the 1920's, if not earlier. They still haven't found a way to do it with a net energy gain. A trillion barrels worth of oil in the form of oil shale, and it still hasn't been figured out after nearly 90 years.
aardvark baguette Posted June 30, 2008 Report Posted June 30, 2008 90 years of cheaper, more plentiful oil.
aerius Posted June 30, 2008 Report Posted June 30, 2008 The original "profit price" of shale oil was $5 a barrel. Then it was 10, then 15, then 20, then 30, 40, 60, 80, then 100. The technology never came even when the price of oil blew past the "profit price" of shale oil.
diebenkorn Posted June 30, 2008 Report Posted June 30, 2008 Firefighters said the electricity used to power hybrids require high-voltage wiring. That means firefighters can't use metal-crushing or wire-splitting tools to rescue people trapped inside. Edit: just read they are learning how to work around this though
Dusty Chalk Posted June 30, 2008 Report Posted June 30, 2008 But as demand goes up, oil previously considered un-drillable becomes worth drilling.Only because the expensiveness of obtaining it is offset by how expensive oil is (or will be). That doesn't make it right. I mean, cannibalism isn't food, but as you run out of food, your fellow passengers seem more and more palatable, right? That doesn't make it right, right? Ever? At the expense of raping the planet, I don't think certain drilling will ever be worthwhile -- we need to start working harder on alternative means of energy, and more efficiently using oil as it is (fuel cell technology, hybrids, etc.).
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