Has Apple lost the plot with the iPhone?

[TheSloth]

I'm a supporter of almost all things Apple, but I have to say the iPhone thing seems to have blown out of all proportion:

"Apple Statement

iPhone has already passed several of its required certification tests and is on schedule to ship in late June as planned. We can?t wait until customers get their hands (and fingers) on it and experience what a revolutionary and magical product it is. However, iPhone contains the most sophisticated software ever shipped on a mobile device, and finishing it on time has not come without a price ? we had to borrow some key software engineering and QA resources from our Mac OS X team, and as a result we will not be able to release Leopard at our Worldwide Developers Conference in early June as planned. While Leopard's features will be complete by then, we cannot deliver the quality release that we and our customers expect from us. We now plan to show our developers a near final version of Leopard at the conference, give them a beta copy to take home so they can do their final testing, and ship Leopard in October. We think it will be well worth the wait. Life often presents tradeoffs, and in this case we're sure we've made the right ones. [Apr 12, 2007]"

What exactly does Apple stand to gain from the iPhone, even if they meet their initial sales goals which with the fan base they almost certainly will?

[postjack]

For years I have been listening to the cable news talking heads and NPR say that the next/current "big thing" are all-in-one handheld entertainment/utility devices, like when everyone in America shit their pants when the first cell phone/mp3 player came out.

Even when I was a big iPod guy, I never got this. I never had a desire to even own a phone that did anything else except make phone calls. No camera phones, no internet, no mp3 player. I'd rather have a nice phone, a nice camera, and a nice DAP, all separately, rather then an all-in-one device with a crappy camera and a crappy DAP. I also don't want to surf the web on a tiny screen. Though I am sure quality has increased in recent years, such a product still doesn't hold much fascination for me.

Looking at the mass market, I could understand how just a few gadget loving consumers could enjoy such a product, but surely not enough people for these products to really be viable? Well, apparently I really didn't have my finger on the pulse of this one, because now everyone at least has a camera phone, if not a video phone, or a phone that plays MP3s.

But I do have some positive expectations for the iPhone. I've never really owned a cellphone I would describe as overly complicated, but I have never handled one for which all the functions are intuitive. I hate having to dig around a bunch of similarly named menus just to turn my ringer down, or put the phone in manner mode. I'm hoping the iPhone will have a super slick and super easy to use design that will hopefully inspire other cell phone makers to work on their own designs. Basically, I want a design so intuitive, that my mother could pick it up and have a grasp of all of its functions in a short amount of time.

[tkam]

Personally I don't think it's a very good product, it's overpriced and it's not a device that people really need. I think what we'll see happen is all the rabid Apple fans will slurp it up because thats what they do. But after that initial sales surge I doubt it will do very well.

[TheSloth]

Personally I don't think it's a very good product, it's overpriced and it's not a device that people really need. I think what we'll see happen is all the rabid Apple fans will slurp it up because thats what they do. But after that initial sales surge I doubt it will do very well.

The standard response would be 'that's what they said about the iPod'. There is some small truth in that people didn't need iPods, but they found a need for them.

The iPhone however is very different. It is not a new market, it's just a slightly evolved version of an old onel, which by the time it comes out will be less and less evolved compared with the state of the art. It's also not a device you can just buy and use - you need Cingular. That to me is the failing of the iPhone. You can't expect to market a product to the masses that requires them to sign a lengthy contract with another provider who has nothing to do with Apple. I would consider buying the iPhone if that price was an unlocked, and at those price points can't understand why it's not carrier independent - at $600 I doubt Apple has any problem with their gross margin, without any subsidy from anyone.

I wonder if Apple remember that the product that brought the iPod to the masses wasn't the iPod at all - it was the much later 'mini' incarnation. A simple, easy to use, relatively inexpensive product that works out of the box with 99% of the computers out there, and if you discount the iTunes store (never used it myself) has no hidden costs.

[hungrych]

The more stuff they put in one box the more I think "one concentrated point of failure!"

[mirumu]

I've been a Mac user for many years now (well over a decade), I used to own a Newton and own an iPod today too (I got in at the third generation at the point I found they had reached the usable level). The iPhone isn't really a product I'm looking for. I appreciate some of the features, especially the integration between the phone, email, IM and web functionality which is the kind of thing Apple is good at (the Newton was great at this too), but it's not worth enough to me to warrant buying the iPhone. In terms of it's music playing ability, it's just not got enough space for me, end of story. As for the camera, well I don't need to carry a camera around with me every day, I'd rather have a good quality stand alone camera. My current phone (A Motorola V3 Razr) does have a camera but I don't use it, I certainly wouldn't pay extra for one. I like the V3 because it's small and is great for ringing people and sending the odd text message.

Honestly, if they put a 120GB 1.8" hard drive in there I'd be much more keen given that I could replace my iPod with it but as it stands, it's a good phone with poor music playing and camera functionality in a form factor that's too large and costly given it's feature set.

Oh, and of the people I know who use Macs and own iPods, none are planning to buy an iPhone. It's the people who own PDAs/smartphones and don't have music players/cameras today that seem most interested in it. There's certainly a market for that kind of device, I mean people buy those big bulky Treo's and Windows Mobile based devices. Maybe Apple will pull these users in?

Some of the success of the iPhone may depend on how fast they get new models out that add features people really want and actually fix whatever issues the early adopters find. I think only time will tell with that one.

[thrice]

It seems to me that Apple is taking a new step with the iPhone. At that price point it doesn't seem like a mass market device...I think it's a move toward greater marketshare in the business world. Who uses smartphones? The people who are gadget geeks and then large companies that have employees who need access to e-mail, web...etc. away from the office. While I'm sure a smartpone can work with a Mac, it's not going to have the kind of integration that current smartphones have with windows macines/servers.

Apple has earned some cultural capital with the iPod....their desktops are becoming more popular as well as their laptops. Now they have the whole package...they can walk up to a company and say, we've got desktop/laptop/smartphone that works together and the software to run it...you don't need anyone else....just us*

While the pricepoint and service plans might not be mass consumer friendly right now, it'll come down...perhaps it's high enough to support larger discounts for corporate sales. Of course none of us have access to Apple's marketing data so it's all speculation. But if I were Steve Jobs I would want to make the most out of the foot in the door I have right now. The iMac/iPod/iTunes combo pulled them up from decline and their trying to grow. Apple is a hot, hip, young brand. Apple products are status symbols as well now.

*and linux for your servers

[mirumu]

Now they have the whole package...they can walk up to a company and say, we've got desktop/laptop/smartphone that works together and the software to run it...you don't need anyone else....just us*

Now that makes a lot of sense to me.

[ojnihs]

Now they have the whole package...they can walk up to a company and say, we've got desktop/laptop/smartphone that works together and the software to run it...you don't need anyone else....just us*

Also makes a ton of sense to me. I never really thought about it in that way, but I think thrice hit it on the nose. With the price that Apple has set forward for their iPhone, they're definitely aiming for those who work in the business world, and most likely those who use Macs in their private or working lives. The seamless integration possibilities that come with the iPhone is definitely it's biggest selling point, and I honestly have said, "I wish there was a smartphone that was really, I mean really, compatible with Mac," many, many a time. Apple seems to be moving towards this market more and more, and I'm personally excited to see what's in stake for us all in the future. Being the Mac addict that I am, I can see myself getting an iPhone sometime in the future, maybe when they incorporate bigger hard drives into the thing.

[Tyll Hertsens]

I see hope in the iPhone, even though I think it will not do as well as they hope simply because of the Singular only service.

My hope is that because it has a serioius OS it will be able to feed a portable DAC with it's USB. Does anyone know if the iPhone will act as a USB host for mapping audio out to another player? As portable devices become "smarter" we might get back the ability to usefully have portable amps with DACs in them. I've got my fingers crossed hard.

[TheSloth]

I see hope in the iPhone, even though I think it will not do as well as they hope simply because of the Singular only service.

My hope is that because it has a serioius OS it will be able to feed a portable DAC with it's USB. Does anyone know if the iPhone will act as a USB host for mapping audio out to another player? As portable devices become "smarter" we might get back the ability to usefully have portable amps with DACs in them. I've got my fingers crossed hard.

Likelihood is that this is not something that will be supported by default, but will not be very difficult to 'hack'. Core Audio is built at a very fundamental level of OS X, and even though the iPhone runs OS X-lite, it will still be running its audio through at least some version of Core Audio. Even if the functionality has been chopped out to save space and processing time, I'll bet someone with appropriate brains and experience will be able to put it back in fairly easily.

[qazwsx]

I'm a supporter of almost all things Apple, but I have to say the iPhone thing seems to have blown out of all proportion:

"Apple Statement

iPhone has already passed several of its required certification tests and is on schedule to ship in late June as planned. We can?t wait until customers get their hands (and fingers) on it and experience what a revolutionary and magical product it is. However, iPhone contains the most sophisticated software ever shipped on a mobile device, and finishing it on time has not come without a price ? we had to borrow some key software engineering and QA resources from our Mac OS X team, and as a result we will not be able to release Leopard at our Worldwide Developers Conference in early June as planned. While Leopard's features will be complete by then, we cannot deliver the quality release that we and our customers expect from us. We now plan to show our developers a near final version of Leopard at the conference, give them a beta copy to take home so they can do their final testing, and ship Leopard in October. We think it will be well worth the wait. Life often presents tradeoffs, and in this case we're sure we've made the right ones. [Apr 12, 2007]"

What exactly does Apple stand to gain from the iPhone, even if they meet their initial sales goals which with the fan base they almost certainly will?

Nothing except their products profile. They are moving with their commerical sense. That's it.

[Eric5676]

This and "Apple TV" really have me thinking that Apple is spreading their net out way too wide...

[mirumu]

This and "Apple TV" really have me thinking that Apple is spreading their net out way too wide...

I remember thinking that when they announced the iPod. Maybe you're right, but the market can be surprising at times.

[TheSloth]

Well looking at their computer sales figures it seems they feel that with their current upward progress in that department, they can afford to spread. They are generating record sales and profits, and have more cash in the bank than ever, so they feel that this is 'their time'.

That's how I see their reasoning - I wonder how it will work out.

[Thelonious Monk]

if you can't use a bestskinsever with it i cannot imagine you being able to see the screen after a while...

[qazwsx]

Well looking at their computer sales figures it seems they feel that with their current upward progress in that department, they can afford to spread. They are generating record sales and profits, and have more cash in the bank than ever, so they feel that this is 'their time'.

That's how I see their reasoning - I wonder how it will work out.

IMO they are trying to be the next Sony; be the "brand of the decade" and try to have their name posted on as many electronics as possible. They blew up commerical success with the iPod, so they are going to take it wherever they can. They already have computers and portable audio, so now they are moving into other things.

And has anyone seen the ad for the Apple iTV?